Shiv Sena’s tiger cowers on day of no-confidence motion in Parliament

Shiv Sena’s BJP’s oldest ally in Maharashtra failed to get their tiger roaring on the day of the No-Confidence Motion in Parliament.

The Shiv Sena had announced before the vote that it will be abstaining, and also walked out of the house. “We are with the NDA today, can’t say about tomorrow,” the party spokesperson said. Sources are rife with rumours that Amit Shah met Shiv Sena supremo, Uddhav Thackeray last night before the No-Confidence Motion.

Along with the Shiv Sena the Naveen Patnaik-led Biju Janata Dal staged a walkout before the debate started. “We had no choice, this was a perfect decision. We are not helping the BJP government,” BJD lawmaker Tathaghat Satpathy told NDTV.

There have been 26 no-confidence motions in the Lok Sabha in the past. Twenty-five of them were unsuccessful, and one did not reach the voting stage because Congress’s Morarji Desai resigned as prime minister.

The National Democratic Alliance has 312 members in the 533-member house. The majority mark is 267, as 11 seats are vacant. Though the numbers don’t support the opposition, the Congress and other parties have indicated that they are keen to utilise the debate to bring up a range of of issues including farm distress, slow economic growth and rising incidents of lynching.

Two parties – the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) and Shiv Sena – have already decided to boycott the ongoing no-confidence motion in Parliament. There are 533 members in the Lok Sabha (excluding the Speaker) at present, but its effective strength will come down to 496 if 19 MPs of the BJD and 18 of the Shiv Sena do not participate in the voting process.

This means that the current halfway mark, stands at 249 seats. The two-thirds mark is 330.

The National Democratic Alliance began the day with 312 votes. However, its strength came down to 294 members after the Shiv Sena walked out. If the AIADMK’s 37 MPs back the government, its strength will go up to 331 seats.

While the final outcome will remain contingent on whether each MP from the NDA umbrella as well as the AIADMK votes for the government, the current configuration suggests that the government’s aim of securing two-thirds majority in the house during voting lies within the realm of possibility. So at the of the day Tamil Nadu holds the key to the magnitude of the BJP’s victory.